Impact of One-Year Serum Creatinine on Long-term Renal Graft Survival in a Living-Related Renal Transplant Program

Abstract

This study was carried out to determine the impact of one-year posttransplant serum creatinine (SCr) levels on the long-term outcomes of living-related donor kidney transplants. A retrospective cohort study included 773 adult living-related renal transplant recipients from 2010 to 2012, with a minimum follow-up period of five years. Demographics and posttransplantation follow-up data including immunosuppression regimens, rejection episodes, and survival rates were evaluated. Patients were divided into four cohorts (G1, G2, G3, and G4 based on SCr at the end of the 1st year: G1, SCr <88.4 μ mol/L; G2, 88.5≤ SCr ≤ 132.6 μmol/L; G3, 132.7≤ SCr ≤176.8 mol/L; and G4, SCr ≥176.9 μ mol/L). Comparisons between the groups used the Chi-square test for qualitative parameters and analysis of variance for continuous variables. Five-year graft survival for G1 was 98% as compared to 76% in G4 (P <0.001). Recipients of G4 encountered more acute rejection episodes in 21% of the cases as compared to 7.3% in G1 (P = 0.001). Donors were older in G4 (42.07 ± 10.4 years) as compared to G1 (30.1 ± 8.5 years) (P = 0.001). A third of the donors in G1 were HLA identical as compared to 7% in G4. Prediction of long-term graft survival is possible by the SCr level at one year post transplant. This can be of great importance, especially to identify those patients who require close monitoring in follow-up. Donor age, HLA, and acute rejection impact SCr at one year and hence graft outcome.