The effect of host population heterogeneity on epidemic outbreaks

Abstract

In the first part of this paper, we review old and new results about the influence of host population heterogeneity on (various characteristics of) epidemic outbreaks. In the second part we highlight a modelling issue that so far has received little attention: how do contact patterns, and hence transmission opportunities, depend on the size and the composition of the host population? Without any claim on completeness, we offer a range of potential (quasi-mechanistic) submodels. The overall aim of the paper is to describe the state-of-the-art and to catalyse new work.

Keywords

• Kermack-McKendrick
• epidemic outbreak model
• static heterogeneity
• final size
• contact structures
• herd immunity threshold