An Empirical Investigation of the Black-Scholes Model: Evidence from the Australian Stock Exchange

Abstract

This paper evaluates the probability of an exchange traded European call option beingexercised on the ASX200 Options Index. Using single-parameter estimates of factors withinthe Black-Scholes model, this paper utilises qualitative regression and a maximum likelihoodapproach. Results indicate that the Black-Scholes model is statistically significant at the 1%level. The results also provide evidence that the use of implied volatility and a jump-diffusionapproach, which increases the tail properties of the underlying lognormal distribution,improves the statistical significance of the Black-Scholes model.

Keywords

• Black-Scholes model
• probability
• Australian stock exchange