Numerical Probabilistic Load Flow Analysis in Modern Power Systems with Intermittent Energy Sources

Abstract

Renewable resources integration through distributed generation (DG) affects conventional consideration of power system performance and confronts deterministic load flow (DLF) analysis with serious challenges. The DLF gives a snapshot of the system state neglecting all of the uncertainties arising from intermittent DG driven by variable weather conditions or volatile consumption. Therefore, with the aim of finer tracking and presentation of system variables, a probabilistic load flow (PLF) approach should be adopted. First, this article gives a literature overview of different PLF techniques. It focuses on numerical techniques examining them for simple random and Latin Hypercube sampling, vastly applied in previous works, and proposes a method combining Monte Carlo simulations with Halton quasi-random numbers. Stochastic modelling is performed for solar and wind power output. For method comparison and confirmation of the applicability of suggested PLF method with Halton sequences, different IEEE test cases were used, all modified by attaching DGs. More profound method assessment is conducted through discussing different renewables penetration levels and processing time. The overall simulation outcomes have shown that results of Halton method are of similar precision as the generally used Latin Hypercube method and therefore indicated the relevance of the proposed method and its potential for application in contemporary system analysis.

Keywords

• distributed generation
• Halton sequences
• load flow
• Monte Carlo methods
• probabilistic logic
• uncertainty