Investigating the effects of food available and climatic variables on the animal host density of hemorrhagic Fever with renal syndrome in changsha, china.

Abstract

BACKGROUND: The transmission of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is influenced by population dynamics of its main host, rodents. It is therefore important to better understand rodents' characteristic in epidemic areas. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We examined the potential impact of food available and climatic variability on HFRS rodent host and developed forecasting models. Monthly rodent density of HFRS host and climate data in Changsha from January 2004 to December 2011 were obtained. Monthly normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and temperature vegetation dryness index (TVDI) for rice paddies were extracted from MODIS data. Cross-correlation analysis were carried out to explore correlation between climatic variables and food available with monthly rodent data. We used auto-regressive integrated moving average model with explanatory variables to examine the independent contribution of climatic variables and food supply to rodent density. The results indicated that relative rodent density of HFRS host was significantly correlated with monthly mean temperatures, monthly accumulative precipitation, TVDI and NDVI with lags of 1-6 months. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Food available plays a significant role in population fluctuations of HFRS host in Changsha. The model developed in this study has implications for HFRS control and prevention.