Time series analysis of animal bite cases attending anti-rabies clinic

Abstract

Background: Rabies is a disease transmitted mostly through animal bites in humans, and seasonal variation in animal bites has been reported by different studies. There has been no study in India using time series analysis for studying monthly variation in animal bite cases. Aim: (a) To find out long-term trends and monthly variations in new animal bite cases. (b) To make projections for new animal bite cases. (c) To find out the difference between actual and projected new animal bite cases following the COVID-19 pandemic. Methodology: A retrolective, record-based study was conducted in a tertiary care facility, Jaipur, and data of new Category II and Category III animal bite cases were taken from January 2007 to December 2021. A multiplicative model was used for conducting time series analysis. The projected monthly number of cases was estimated using the line of best fit based on the least square method. Result: An increasing trend in the annual number of animal bite cases was observed from 7,982 in 2007 to 10,134 in 2019. The monthly index was lowest for the months July to November (0.88 to 0.95), peaked in January (1.14), remained higher from January to June, and fell in July (0.95). The monthly number of new animal bite cases from April 2020 to December 2021 was significantly lower than the projected number (P-value < 0.001). Conclusion: Because the monthly index of animal bite cases was high from January onward, information education and communication (IEC) activities should be increased in the preceding months (November onward) for making people aware of immediate care to be provided to animal bite cases and seek prompt medical care.

Keywords

• monthly variation
• projection
• rabies prophylaxis
• time series analysis