Mathematical Assessment of the Impact of the Imperfect Vaccination on Diphtheria Transmission Dynamics

Abstract

Diphtheria is a vaccine-preventable disease in which the outbreaks will not occur if a high enough proportion of individuals in a population are immune. Recent reports reveal that vaccinated individuals with low coverage levels of immunity may be at risk of subclinical diphtheria infection. Therefore, the development of an epidemiology model that will predict the optimal vaccine coverage level needed to prevent the spread of these diseases is crucial. In this paper, a mathematical model for diphtheria transmission with asymptomatic infection, logistic growth, and vaccination is formulated and rigorously analyzed to gain insights into its global dynamical features. The study results show that the disease is eradicated whenever the vaccination coverage is greater than the optimal vaccination coverage level needed for diphtheria eradication. The reported cases of diphtheria in Thailand are applied to estimate the appropriate parameters of the model. Sensitivity analysis reveals the rate of vaccination and the asymptomatic infection are influential factors in controlling and preventing diphtheria. Numerical simulations are illustrated in the theoretical results and show that the incubation period of asymptomatic individuals has an impact on the optimal vaccination coverage level needed for diphtheria eradication.

Keywords

• diphtheria
• vaccination coverage level
• global stability
• sensitivity analysis