Ecological restoration is crucial in mitigating carbon loss caused by permafrost thawing on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Abstract

Abstract Climate change leads to permafrost thawing, accelerating carbon emissions increases, challenges the goal of climate change mitigation. However, it remains unknown whether implementing ecological restoration projects in Alpine areas can offset the adverse effects of permafrost thawing locally. Here we took the Qinghai‒Tibet Plateau as an example to explore this issue based on the improved Biome-BGCMuSo model. We found future climate change-induced permafrost thawing will decrease carbon sink. Projects’ carbon sink enhancement could fully counteract the permafrost thawing-induced carbon loss. Additionally, future warmer and wetter climates will enlarge the suitable area for restoration. If these areas are taken into account, carbon sink attributable to Projects will further increase. These results indicate that ERPs have the potential to combat future permafrost thawing-induced carbon loss, and their contribution will be further amplified by future climate change.