Recent trends in daily rainfall extremes over Montenegro (1951–2010)

Abstract

More intense rainfall may cause a range of negative impacts upon society and the environment. In this study we analysed trends in extreme ETCCDI (Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices) rainfall indices in Montenegro for the period between 1951 and 2010. Montenegro has been poorly studied in terms of rainfall extremes, yet it contains the wettest Mediterranean region known as Krivošije. Several indices of precipitation extremes were assessed including the number of dry days and rainfall totals in order to identify trends and possible changes. A spatial pattern relationship between extreme rainfall indices and the North Atlantic Oscillation has also been examined. The results generally suggest that the number of days with precipitation decreased while rainfall intensity increased, particularly in south-western parts of the country. A slight tendency towards intense rainfall events is suggested. The examined rainfall indices and North Atlantic Oscillation over Montenegro seemed to be directly linked to changes in one of the major large-scale circulation modes such as the NAO pattern that is particularly evident during the winter season.