A conformable mathematical model of Ebola Virus Disease and its stability analysis

Abstract

Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) is a viral hemorrhagic fever that affects humans and other primates. It is characterized by rapid virus spread in a short period of time. The disease has the potential to spread to many different regions of the world. In this paper, we have developed a modified mathematical model of the Ebola virus, adding the quarantine population as a control strategy. The quarantine population F and parameters ρ3 represent the rate at which individuals enter the quarantine compartment, which is vital in controlling the virus spread within society. The conformable derivatives have been applied to the modified model to observe the behavior of individuals for fractional derivative values between 0.7 and 1. For a modified model, the threshold parameter (R0) has been determined using the Next-Generation Matrix (NGM) method. We have checked local and global stability at a disease-free equilibrium point using Routh-Herwitz (RH) criteria and Castillo-Chavez, respectively. Numerical results obtained through the Fourth-Order Runge Kutta Method (RK4) demonstrate, a decrease in the virus transmission rate after following the implementation of the quarantine strategy.

Keywords

• Epidemic disease
• Disease-free equilibrium point
• Next-generation matrix
• Local stability
• Global stability