Forecasting inpatient glycemic control: extension of damped trend methods to subpopulations

Abstract

Aim: Evaluate forecasting models applied to smaller geographic locations within the hospital. Materials & methods: Damped trend models were applied to blood glucose measurements of progressively smaller inpatient geographic subpopulations. Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and 95% prediction intervals (PIs) assessed validity of the models to forecasts 48 weeks into the future. Results: MAPE values increased, and 95% PIs widened, when data from progressively smaller geographic areas were analyzed. MAPE values were highest and 95% PIs were broadest with the smallest geographic areas. In contrast, observations missed at larger geographical locations were more evident with smaller subpopulations. Conclusion: The utility of damped trend models to forecast inpatient glucose control diminished when applied to smaller geographic areas within the hospital.

Keywords

• damped trend analysis
• forecasting
• hospital
• hyperglycemia
• inpatient