Forecasting drying up of spruce forests in Transcarpathia (Ukraine) using the FORKOME model

Abstract

This paper presents the results of analysis of drying up of spruce stands obtained by the use of the FORKOME computer model. The verification of this model was conducted with field data from spruce-dominated mixed forests in Transcarpathia (Ukraine). The forecast of drying up, based on the latest version of the simulation of FORKOME computer model, allowed to evaluate results regarding bioclimatic effects on the displacement, growth, survival and death of spruce and other tree species. The modelling was performed on the basis of statistical Monte Carlo simulations. The forecast of the spruce stand dynamics was conducted for 100-year period along with control and warm-dry scenarios. The analysis has revealed the rapid decrease of biomass in the first decade as a result of spruce decline. Auto-correlation analysis of spruce and cross-correlation analysis of the relation between tree species were conducted as well.

Keywords

• dynamics
• biomass
• number of trees
• simulation