Betting on the best case: higher end warming is underrepresented in research

Abstract

We compare the probability of different warming rates to their mentions in IPCC reports through text mining. We find that there is a substantial mismatch between likely warming rates and research coverage. 1.5 °C and 2 °C scenarios are substantially overrepresented. More likely higher end warming scenarios of 3 °C and above, despite potential catastrophic impacts, are severely neglected.

Keywords

• higher end warming
• climate change
• IPCC
• existential risk