Transfer Learning for Day-Ahead Load Forecasting: A Case Study on European National Electricity Demand Time Series

Abstract

Short-term load forecasting (STLF) is crucial for the daily operation of power grids. However, the non-linearity, non-stationarity, and randomness characterizing electricity demand time series renders STLF a challenging task. Various forecasting approaches have been proposed for improving STLF, including neural network (NN) models which are trained using data from multiple electricity demand series that may not necessarily include the target series. In the present study, we investigate the performance of a special case of STLF, namely transfer learning (TL), by considering a set of 27 time series that represent the national day-ahead electricity demand of indicative European countries. We employ a popular and easy-to-implement feed-forward NN model and perform a clustering analysis to identify similar patterns among the load series and enhance TL. In this context, two different TL approaches, with and without the clustering step, are compiled and compared against each other as well as a typical NN training setup. Our results demonstrate that TL can outperform the conventional approach, especially when clustering techniques are considered.

Keywords

• short-term load forecasting
• multi-layer perceptron
• national energy demand
• deep learning
• transfer learning
• time series forecasting