The Relationship between Management Earnings Forecast Errors and Accruals

Abstract

Management earnings forecast is a kind of mandatory disclosure in Iran. A large body of literature on the capital market has emphasized the importance of this forecast. Earnings forecasts influence stock prices resulting in direct market reactions. Accruals represent a key aspect of mandatory reporting. Basically, the environment where the firms are operating in is volatile due to business changes. Therefore, managers’ misassessments have made them unavoidably commit some common errors in assessing their firms’ business prospects. The objective of this study is to examine the association between errors in management forecasts of subsequent year earnings and current year accruals. To do this, we examined the earnings forecasts of listed companies on Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) during 2005-2008. We tested the hypotheses by using Panel Data Regression and Analysis Multivariate Regression. The results show a positive association between management earnings forecasts and accruals. This positive association is stronger for firms operating in more uncertain business environment.

Keywords

• management earnings forecasts
• accruals
• mandatory disclosure