Ship Navigation Behavior Prediction Based on AIS Data

Abstract

Real-time and accurate ship navigation dynamic prediction can effectively improve maritime supervision’s intelligence and precision level and ensure ship navigation safety. To further enhance the accuracy of ship navigation dynamic prediction, this paper uses ship AIS as the data source and proposes an ixmproved LSTM navigation dynamic prediction model based on the attention mechanism. Firstly, a set of pre-processing means, including navigation data extraction, abnormal data processing, and missing data interpolation, is proposed to solve the problems of information loss and inaccuracy in AIS data and incomplete retention of dynamic navigation features; secondly, combining the dynamic characteristics of ship navigation in AIS data with time series, using longitude, latitude, heading, speed, a ship heading and time increment as input to establish a dynamic forecasting model for navigation based on LSTM; The existing navigation sequence coding distortion and space-time data incoherence problem, an optimized Attention-LSTM neural network navigation dynamic prediction method is proposed, and the accuracy and robustness of the model are verified by simulation analysis. The results show that this method can achieve high-precision prediction of the ship’s longitude, latitude, heading, and speed.

Keywords

• AIS data
• ship navigation
• prediction
• attention-LSTM