Cross-impact method

Abstract

The paper displays the application of the Cross-Impact method in pedagogy, namely a methodological approach which crosses variables in a novel, but statistically justified manner. The method is an innovation in pedagogy as well as in research methodology of social and psychological phenomena. Specifically, events and processes are crossed, that is, experts' predictions of about future interaction of events and processes. Therefore, this methodology is futuristic; it concerns predicting future, which is of key importance for pedagogic objectives. The paper presents two instances of the cross-impact approach: the longer, displayed in fourteen steps, and the shorter, in four steps. They are both accompanied with mathematic and statistical formulae allowing for quantification, that is, a numerical expression of the probability of a certain event happening in the future. The advantage of this approach is that it facilitates planning in education which so far has been solely based on lay estimates and assumptions.

Keywords

• cross-impact
• event
• process
• matrix
• future