Agro@mbiente On-line (Jun 2016)
Impact of climate change on agro-climatic zoning of Arabica coffee in the State of Espirito Santo, Brazil = Impactos das mudanças climáticas no zoneamento agroclimatológico do café arábica no Espírito Santo
Abstract
The aim of this study was to define, using current agro-climatic zoning, and for the next 100 years, areas of different climatic suitability for the cultivation of Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica L.) in the State of Espirito Santo, Brazil. Monthly and yearly data of average air temperature and rainfall were used, taken from historical series for the period of 1976 to 2006. It was necessary to simulate the effects of temperature increments of +1 ºC, +2 ºC, +3 ºC, +4 ºC and +5 ºC, using the mean result of six models, namely: GFDL-R30 (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, R-30 resolution), CCSR/NIES (Center for Climate Research Studies), CSIROMk2 (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization GCM mark 2), CGCM2 (Canadian Global Coupled Model v 2), ECHAM4 (European Centre Hamburg Model v 4) and HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Coupled Model v 3). The results showed that currently, areas which are completely suitable represent 19.49% of the area of Espirito Santo which, with an increase of 5 °C, would decrease to 0.02%; whereas completely unsuitable areas would increase from 33.47% to 95.63%, making the cultivation of Arabica coffee unsuited to the state if the genetic and physiological characteristics, which have a tolerance limit for the average annual temperature of between 23 °C and 24 °C, are maintained. = Objetivou-se com este trabalho definir, por meio do zoneamento agroclimatológico atual e para os próximos 100 anos, áreas com diferentes aptidões climáticas para a cultura do café arábica (Coffea arabica L.), no estado do Espírito Santo. Para isso, foram utilizados dados de temperatura média do ar e precipitação pluviométrica, em escala mensal e anual, de séries históricas representativas do período de 1976 a 2006. Foi necessário simular o efeito do incremento de temperatura de +1 ºC, +2 ºC, +3 ºC, +4 ºC e +5 ºC, por meio da média obtida do resultado de seis modelos, a saber: GFDL-R30 (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, R-30 resolution model), CCSR/NIES (Center for Climate Research Studies Model), CSIROMk2 (Common wealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization GCM mark 2), CGCM2 (Canadian Global Coupled Model version 2), ECHAM4 (European Centre Hamburg Model version 4) e HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3). Os resultados encontrados demonstraram que, atualmente, as áreas completamente aptas representam 19,49%, e com acréscimo de 5 °C diminuirá para 0,02%, enquanto as áreas completamente inaptas passarão de 33,47% para 95,63% do território do Espírito Santo, tornando o café arábica impróprio para o cultivo no estado, se mantidas as características genéticas e fisiológicas que tem como limite de tolerância de temperaturas médias anuais entre 23 °C e 24 °C. .
