Deep-Learning Correction Methods for Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model Precipitation Forecasting: A Case Study over Zhengzhou, China

Abstract

Systematic biases and coarse resolutions are major limitations of current precipitation datasets. Many studies have been conducted for precipitation bias correction and downscaling. However, it is still challenging for the current approaches to handle the complex features of hourly precipitation, resulting in the incapability of reproducing small-scale features, such as extreme events. In this study, we proposed a deep-learning model called PBT (Population-Based Training)-GRU (Gate Recurrent Unit) based on numerical model NWP gridded forecast data and observation data and employed machine-learning (ML) methods, such as Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), and Gradient-Boosted Decision Tree (GBDT), to correct the WRF hourly precipitation forecasts. To select the evaluation method, we conducted a sample balance experiment and found that when the proportion of positive and negative samples was 1:1, the Threat Score (TS) and accuracy scores were the highest, while the Probability of Detection (POD) score was slightly lower. The results showed that: (1) the overall errors of the PBT-GRU model were relatively smaller, and its root mean square error (RMSE) was only 1.12 mm, which was reduced by 63.04%, 51.72%, 58.36%, 37.43%, and 26.32% compared to the RMSE of WRF, SVM, KNN, GBDT, and RF, respectively; and (2) according to the Taylor diagram, the standard deviation (σn) and correlation coefficient (r) of PBT-GRU were 1.02 and 0.99, respectively, while the σn and r of RF were 1.12 and 0.98, respectively. Furthermore, the σn and r of the SVM, GBDT, and KNN models were between those of the above models, with values of 1.24 and 0.95, 1.15 and 0.97, and 1.26 and 0.93, respectively. Based on a comprehensive analysis of the TS, accuracy, RMSE, r and σn, the PBT-GRU model performed the best, with a significantly better correction effect than that of the ML methods, resulting in an overall performance ranking of PBT-GRU > RF > GBDT > SVM > KNN. This study provides a hint of the possibility that the proposed PBT-GRU model can outperform model precipitation correction based on a small sample of one-station data. Thus, due to its promising performance and excellent robustness, we recommend adopting the proposed PBT-GRU model for precipitation correction in business applications.

Keywords

• deep learning
• correction
• precipitation forecasting
• Zhengzhou