Application of multivariate storage model to quantify trends in seasonally frozen soil

Abstract

This article presents a study of the ground thermal regime recorded at 11 stations in the North Dakota Agricultural Network. Particular focus is placed on detecting trends in the annual ground freeze process portion of the ground thermal regime’s daily temperature signature. A multivariate storage model from queuing theory is fit to a quantity of estimated daily depths of frozen soil. Statistical inference on a trend parameter is obtained by minimizing a weighted sum of squares of a sequence of daily one-step-ahead predictions. Standard errors for the trend estimates are presented. It is shown that the daily quantity of frozen ground experienced at these 11 sites exhibited a negative trend over the observation period.

Keywords

• seasonally frozen soil
• climate change
• geostatistics
• storage model
• stochastic model