Impact of climatic factors on water quality parameters in tilapia broodfish ponds and predictive modeling of pond water temperature with ARIMAX

Abstract

Climate change represents a considerable threat to aquatic ecosystems, potentially affecting various water quality parameters.The study aims to assess the impacts climatic factors on the water quality parameters in tilapia broodfish pond and forecasting of water temperature in a tilapia broodfish pond using the ARIMAX model. Daily longitudinal time series data on water quality parameters were collected from the pond, while monthly climatic data were obtained from the Bangladesh Meteorological Department. Water temperature exhibited seasonal variation, peaking at 31.23 °C in October and dropping to 20.8 °C in December. pH levels ranged from 7.36 to 10.32, with the lowest recorded in December and the highest in August. Dissolved oxygen levels varied from 7.09 mg/L to 10.65 mg/L, with the lowest in September and the highest in January. Ammonia levels were highest in February at 0.33 mg/L. Water transparency ranged from 15.37 to 28 inches, with the highest in January and the lowest in June. Climatic factors significantly influenced these variations, as specified by Canonical correlation analysis (CCA). The best-fitting model, ARIMAX (1, 0, 1), indicated a fluctuating trend influenced by important exogenous factors like air temperature and solar intensity. By the end January 2025, the water temperature is expected to rise to 27.93 °C. This is a noticeable increase started from November to January. These higher temperatures may improve tilapia broodfish growth and development earlier. But the temperatures are predicted to drop started from February to March, which could negatively affect tilapia growth and development. A clear seasonal fluctuating pattern is exhibited in the future. These findings provide important insights for researchers, policymakers, academics, and those involved in tilapia farming. By considering air temperature and solar intensity in planning, stakeholders can better anticipate future pond conditions. Developing adaptive management strategies to reduce negative impacts and make the most of favorable conditions will be essential for sustainable tilapia production in the context of climate change.

Keywords

• Climatic factors
• ARIMAX
• Modeling
• forecasting
• Broodfish
• Aquaculture