Recent spatial aggregation tendency of rainfall extremes over India

Abstract

Abstract Significant increase in the frequency of occurrences of rainfall extremes has been reported over several parts of the world. These extreme events were defined at individual grids without considering their spatial extent. Here, using ground-based observations over India during boreal summer, we show that the average size of spatially collocated rainfall extremes has been significantly increasing since 1980. However, the frequency of occurrences of such collocated extreme events remains unchanged. Around 90% of the total number of large-sized events (area ≥ 70 × 103 km2) of our study period (1951 to 2015) have occurred after 1980. Some of the major floods in recent decades over India are attributed to these large events. These events have distinctive precursory planetary-scale conditions, unlike their smaller counterparts. As the underlying physical mechanisms of extremes rainfall events are size-dependent, their changing spatial extent needs to be considered to understand the observed trends correctly and obtain realistic future projections.