Научно-аналитический вестник Института Европы РАН (Dec 2022)
General Elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina
Abstract
This article discusses the regular general election hold in Bosnia and Herzegovina (02.10.2022), the course of their electioneering, and the voting results. The analysis reveals the same main actors flashed on the political scene, the same principle collisions repeated, and even the methods of winning victory with the help of nationalist rhetoric remaining unchanged. However, the realignment of political forces has led to a new formula of power both in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and at the national level. The loser was the leading Islamist-nationalist Party of Democratic Action of the Bosniaks, which already bored its Western patrons with its destructive activity. Keeping up with these developments, an assessment of the prospects of the coalition government of Bosnia and Herzegovina formed by 21 political actors is suggested. Among them are the Croatian Democratic Union and the parties blocking with it, the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats with their partners from Republika Srpska and also eight secular Bosnian parties. A significant factor in maintaining the cabinet cohesion is the need to demonstrate to the EU its «cooperation», a sine qua non for Western support and funding. The Federation theoretically could face problems with the losers being able to block the process of authorities formation. However, according to the common understanding, Christian Schmidt, the High Representative of the international community in the country, will not allow this. It can be assumed that under the current international climate (when the Russian Federation is absorbed by the conflict in Ukraine, and Serbia is barely able to withstand Western pressure and the aggravation of the situation in Kosovo), even the allegedly pro-Russian President of the Republika Srpska, Milorad Dodik will be forced to take into account new political realities. If Brussels and Washington are smart enough to not push the Serbs «to the limit», the new Bosnia and Herzegovina government will finally have a chance to get down to business and do something useful for their citizens.
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