Predictors of Bone Metastases at ⁶⁸Ga-PSMA-11 PET/CT in Hormone-Sensitive Prostate Cancer (HSPC) Patients with Early Biochemical Recurrence or Persistence

Abstract

Prostate-specific-membrane-antigen/positron-emission-tomography (PSMA-PET) can accurately detect disease localizations in prostate cancer (PCa) patients with early biochemical recurrence/persistence (BCR/BCP), allowing for more personalized image-guided treatments in oligometastatic patients with major impact in the case of bone metastases (BM). Therefore, this study aimed to identify predictors of BM at PSMA-PET in early-BCR/BCP hormone-sensitive PCa (HSPC) patients, previously treated with radical intent (radiotherapy or radical prostatectomy ± salvage-radiotherapy (SRT)). A retrospective analysis was performed on 443 68Ga-PSMA-11-PET/CT scans. The cohort median PSA at PET-scan was 0.60 (IQR: 0.38–1.04) ng/mL. PSMA-PET detection rate was 42.0% (186/443), and distant lesions (M1a/b/c) were found in 17.6% (78/443) of cases. BM (M1b) were present in 9.9% (44/443) of cases, with 70.5% (31/44) showing oligometastatic spread (≤3 PSMA-positive lesions). In the multivariate binary logistic regression model (accuracy: 71.2%, Nagelkerke-R2: 13%), T stage ≥ 3a (OR: 2.52; 95% CI: 1.13–5.60; p = 0.024), clinical setting (previous SRT vs. first-time BCR OR: 2.90; 95% CI: 1.32–6.35; p = 0.008), and PSAdt (OR: 0.93; 95% CI: 0.88–0.99; p = 0.026) were proven to be significant predictors of bone metastases, with a 7% risk increment for each single-unit decrement of PSAdt. These predictors could be used to further refine the indication for PSMA-PET in early BCR/BCP HSPC patients, leading to higher detection rates of bone disease and more personalized treatments.

Keywords

• prostatic neoplasm
• hormone-sensitive prostate cancer
• PSMA PET
• bone disease
• predictive model