Impacts of land-use change on biospheric carbon: an oriented benchmark using the ORCHIDEE land surface model

Abstract

Land-use change (LUC) impacts biospheric carbon, encompassing biomass carbon and soil organic carbon (SOC). Despite the use of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) in estimating the anthropogenic perturbation of biospheric carbon stocks, critical evaluations of model performance concerning LUC impacts are scarce. Here, we present a systematic evaluation of the performance of the DGVM Organising Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic Ecosystems (ORCHIDEE) in reproducing observed LUC impacts on biospheric carbon stocks over Europe. First, we compare model predictions with observation-based gridded estimates of net and gross primary productivity (NPP and GPP), biomass growth patterns, and SOC stocks. Second, we evaluate the predicted response of soil carbon stocks to LUC based on data from forest inventories, paired plots, chronosequences, and repeated sampling designs. Third, we use interpretable machine learning to identify factors contributing to discrepancies between simulations and observations, including drivers and processes not resolved in ORCHIDEE (e.g. erosion, soil fertility). Results indicate agreement between the model and observed spatial patterns and temporal trends, such as the increase in biomass with age, when simulating biosphere carbon stocks. The direction of the SOC responses to LUC generally aligns between simulated and observed data. However, the model underestimates carbon gains for cropland-to-grassland conversions and carbon losses for grassland-to-cropland and forest-to-cropland conversions. These discrepancies are attributed to bias arising from soil erosion rate, which is not fully captured in ORCHIDEE. Our study provides an oriented benchmark for assessing the DGVMs against observations and explores their potential in studying the impact of LUCs on SOC stocks.