Adaptation of trend analysis over a small-scale region for assessing climate change parameters

Abstract

Several natural and anthropogenic activities mainly escalate the demand for water and food and develop implications for their availability. Hence, it is necessary to analyse the natural and man-made changes for managing resources precisely. This study focuses on assessing the trends of climatic factors such as rainfall and temperature using the Mann–Kendall (MK) test and innovative trend analysis (ITA) for the agricultural cropping seasons. The findings revealed that a statistically insignificant increasing trend in rainfall is observed for all three cropping seasons (i.e.) Kuruvai/Samba (June–September), Thaladi/Navarai (October–January), and Sornavari (February–May), while the mean temperature shows a significantly increasing trend for all three cropping seasons. The results obtained using the MK test are compared with those of the ITA test to identify the reliable trend technique for climatic factor analysis of small regions. To manage the impacts of climate change and develop sustainable conditions in agriculture, this micro-level study assists the decision makers to prefer suitable trend analysis techniques and helps in identifying the climate change adaptation strategies for small regions. Also, this study is helpful for rural farmers to increase their adaptability conditions with regard to the climate change impacts as they are the frontline victims of climate change. HIGHLIGHTS Climate change is one of the important challenges the world is currently facing and highly affects the environment and ecosystems.; The changes in climatic factors directly cause great concern to the agriculture sector.; To reduce the consequences of climatic variability on agriculture, it is necessary to analyse the rainfall and temperature trends to maintain agricultural sustainability.;

Keywords

• agriculture
• climate
• innovative trend analysis
• mann–kendall
• trend analysis