Enhancing the convenience of frailty index assessment for elderly Chinese people with machine learning methods

Abstract

Abstract Frailty is a state that is closely associated with adverse health outcomes in the aging process. The frailty index (FI), which measures frailty in terms of cumulative deficits, has been widely used for frailty assessment in elderly people, and its advantage of self-reported information collection makes it applicable to a broader group of elderly people. Our study aims to simplify the Frailty Index Assessment Scale, while maintaining its reliability and accuracy, to easily and quickly assess frailty in elderly people. In this study, participants (age ≥ 65 years) from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS), which had 13,339, 372 and 1214 participants in 2008, 2011, and 2014, respectively, were used. The 2008 dataset was split into 80% for training and 20% for internal validation, and the data from 2011 to 2014 as external validation. In order to obtain effective predictors, we used Lasso regression, Boruta algorithm and random forest classifier score for feature selection. We used six models for predictive model construction and evaluated the models in the validation dataset. Model performance was measured by area under the curve (AUC), accuracy and F1 score. Logistic regression was found to be the best performing and most interpretable algorithm with AUC, accuracy and F1 of 0.974, 0.932 and 0.880 for the validation dataset, respectively. The AUCs for the external independent validation dataset were 0.963 and 0.977, respectively. Subgroup analysis showed that the model had good predictive power in both males and females. The predictive power was stronger among the elderly people over 80 years old, with AUC, accuracy and F1 of 0.973,0.914, and 0.893, respectively. The model also obtained good predictive power in the case of FI measured by different indicators. The model showed good robustness in the follow-up assessment of frailty status in elderly people, with the AUC remaining above 0.95 and accuracy above 0.9 over the long-term follow-up. Using machine learning techniques, we have successfully developed a simple frailty assessment prediction model based on 10 key features to shorten the frailty assessment scale with near full-scale accuracy. A user-friendly website was created to facilitate the application of this prediction model ( https://healthy-aging.shinyapps.io/Frailty_Assessment/ ).

Keywords

• Elderly people
• Machine learning
• Frailty index
• Shortened questionnaire