Urban–Rural Exposure to Flood Hazard and Social Vulnerability in the Conterminous United States

Abstract

This study investigates the spatial disparities in flood risk and social vulnerability across 66,543 census tracts in the Conterminous United States (CONUS), emphasizing urban–rural differences. Utilizing the American Community Survey (ACS) 2016–2020 data, we focused on 16 social factors representing socioeconomic status, household composition, racial and ethnic minority status, and housing and transportation access. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) reduced these variables into five principal components: Socioeconomic Disadvantage, Elderly and Disability, Housing Density and Vehicle Access, Youth and Mobile Housing, and Group Quarters and Unemployment. An additive model created a comprehensive Social Vulnerability Index (SVI). Statistical analysis, including the Mann–Whitney U test, indicated significant differences in flood risk and social vulnerability between urban and rural areas. Spatial cluster analysis using Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA) revealed significant high flood risk and social vulnerability clusters, particularly in urban regions along the Gulf Coast, Atlantic Seaboard, and Mississippi River. Global and local regression models, including Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR), highlighted social vulnerability’s spatial variability and localized impacts on flood risk. The results showed substantial regional disparities, with urban areas exhibiting higher flood risks and social vulnerability, especially in southeastern urban centers. The analysis also revealed that Socioeconomic Disadvantage, Group Quarters and Unemployment, and Housing Density and Vehicle Access are closely related to flood risk in urban areas, while in rural areas, the relationship between flood risk and factors such as Elderly and Disability and Youth and Mobile Housing is more pronounced. This study underscores the necessity for targeted, region-specific strategies to mitigate flood risks and enhance resilience, particularly in areas where high flood risk and social vulnerability converge. These findings provide critical insights for policymakers and planners aiming to address environmental justice and promote equitable flood risk management across diverse geographic settings.

Keywords

• flood risk
• social vulnerability
• geographically weighted regression
• urban–rural