Characterizing the Impact of Social Inequality on COVID-19 Propagation in Developing Countries

Abstract

The world faces a pandemic not previously experienced in modern times. The internal mechanism of SARS-Cov-2 is not well known and there are no Pharmaceutical Interventions available. To stem the spread of the virus, measures of respiratory etiquette, social distancing and hand hygiene have been recommended. Based on these measures, some countries have already managed to control the COVID-19 propagation, although in the absence of pharmaceutical interventions, this control is not definitive. However, we have seen that social heterogeneity across populations makes the effects of COVID-19 also different. Social inequality affects the population of developing countries not only from an economic point of view. The relationship between social inequality and the health condition is not new, but it becomes even more evident in times of crisis, such as the one the world has been facing with COVID-19. How does social inequality affect the COVID-19 propagation in developing countries is the object of this study. We propose a new epidemic SEIR model based on social indicators to predict outbreak and mortality of COVID-19. The estimated number of infected and fatalities are compared with different levels of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions. We present a case study for the Deep Brazil. The results showed that social inequality has a strong effect on the propagation of COVID-19, increasing its damage and accelerating the collapse of health infrastructure.

Keywords

• COVID-19~propagation
• social inequality
• non-pharmaceutical interventions
• developing countries