Nomogram-Based Prediction of the Futile Recanalization Risk Among Acute Ischemic Stroke Patients Before and After Endovascular Therapy: A Retrospective Study

Abstract

Jincheng Guan,1 Qiong Wang,1 Jiajia Hu,2 Yepeng Hu,1 Qiaoyu Lan,1 Guoqiang Xiao,1 Borong Zhou,2 Haitao Guan1 1Department of Neurology, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, People’s Republic of China; 2Department of Psychiatry, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, People’s Republic of ChinaCorrespondence: Borong Zhou, Department of Psychiatry, the Third Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University, No. 63, Duobao Road, Liwan District, Guangzhou, Guangdong, 510150, People’s Republic of China, Email [email protected] Haitao Guan, Department of Neurology, the Third Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University, No. 63, Duobao Road, Liwan District, Guangzhou, Guangdong, 510150, People’s Republic of China, Email [email protected] and Purpose: Futile recanalization (FRC) is common among large artery occlusion (LAO) patients after endovascular therapy (EVT). We developed nomogram models to identify LAO patients at a high risk of FRC pre- and post-EVT to help neurologists select the optimal candidates for EVT.Methods: From April 2020 to July 2022, EVT and mTICI score ≥ 2b LAO patients were recruited. Nomogram models was developed by two-step approach for predicting the outcomes of LAO patients. First, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression analysis was to optimize variable selection. Then, a multivariable analysis was to construct an estimation model with significant indicators from the LASSO. The accuracy of the model was verified using receiver operating characteristic (ROC), calibration curve, and decision curve analyses (DCA), along with validation cohort (VC).Results: Using LASSO, age, sex, hypertension history, baseline NIHSS, ASPECTS and baseline SBP upon admission were identified from the pre-EVT variables. Model 1 (pre-EVT) showed good predictive performance, with an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.815 in the training cohort (TrC) and 0.904 in VC. Under the DCA, the generated nomogram was clinically applicable where risk cut-off was between 15%– 85% in the TrC and 5%– 100% in the VC. Moreover, age, ASPECTS upon admission, onset duration, puncture-to-recanalization (PTR) duration, and lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR) were screened by LASSO. Model 2 (post-EVT) also demonstrated good predictive performance with AUCs of 0.888 and 0.814 for TrC and VC, respectively. Under the DCA, the generated nomogram was clinically applicable if the risk cut-off was between 13– 100% in the TrC and 22– 85% of VC.Conclusion: In this study, two nomogram models were generated that showed good discriminative performance, improved calibration, and clinical benefits. These nomograms can potentially accurately predict the risk of FRC in LAO patients pre- and post-EVT and help to select appropriate candidates for EVT.Keywords: acute ischemic stroke, AIS, futile recanalization, endovascular therapy, nomogram model, predictive model

Keywords

• acute ischemic stroke (ais)
• futile recanalization
• endovascular therapy
• nomogram model
• predictive model.