Nested cross-validation Gaussian process to model dimethylsulfide mesoscale variations in warm oligotrophic Mediterranean seawater

Abstract

Abstract The study proposes an approach to elucidate spatiotemporal mesoscale variations of seawater Dimethylsulfide (DMS) concentrations, the largest natural source of atmospheric sulfur aerosol, based on the Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) machine learning model. Presently, the GPR was trained and evaluated by nested cross-validation across the warm-oligotrophic Mediterranean Sea, a climate hot spot region, leveraging the high-resolution satellite measurements and Mediterranean physical reanalysis together with in-situ DMS observations. The end product is daily gridded fields with a spatial resolution of 0.083° × 0.083° (~9 km) that spans 23 years (1998–2020). Extensive observations of atmospheric methanesulfonic acid (MSA), a typical biogenic secondary aerosol component from DMS oxidation, are consistent with the parameterized high-resolution estimates of sea-to-air DMS flux (FDMS). This represents substantial progress over existing coarse-resolution DMS global maps which do not accurately depict the seasonal patterns of MSA in the Mediterranean atmospheric boundary layer.