A Spatial Risk Analysis of Springtime Daily Minimum Surface Air Temperature Values for Vineyard Site Selection: Applications to Pinot noir Grapevines throughout the Willamette Valley American Viticultural Area

Abstract

This study introduced the application of concepts and methods from extreme value theory (EVT) to estimate the probability that daily minimum temperatures exceed springtime critical temperature thresholds for Pinot noir buds and young shoots as a function of springtime phenology. The springtime frost risk estimates were computed spatially for Pinot noir throughout the Willamette Valley (WV) American Viticultural Area (AVA) using a gridded dataset of historical daily minimum surface air temperature data. EVT-based springtime frost risk maps can inform vineyard-management operations by identifying those locations throughout a wine region with a low risk for any cold injury where remedial action is likely not necessary when there is a forecasted frost event. Frost risk estimates were computed for 1991–2021 and 1991–2022 to examine a potentially changed risk profile for springtime frost events throughout the WV AVA due to the April 2022 advective frost event. The April 2022 advective frost event influenced the risk profile throughout the AVA such that an event of its magnitude is now modelled to occur more frequently. The EVT-based risk analysis can be readily updated each year as new data become available. While spatially varying budbreak calculations facilitated computation of the spring frost risk estimates, the EVT approach profiled in this study does not necessarily depend on potentially uncertain predetermined budbreak date estimates. Gridded maps of extreme daily minimum temperature exceedances, reclassified relative to the springtime phenology critical temperature thresholds for Pinot noir, were readily combined with a ripening potential map to identify optimal areas for vineyard site selection throughout the WV AVA. When simultaneously evaluating Pinot noir ripening potential with springtime frost risk using historical data, the limiting factor for vineyard site selection throughout the WV AVA was frost risk, not ripening potential. The study approach is also applicable for other winegrape-growing regions, assessments of winter freeze risk and summertime heatwaves, and with non-gridded observed temperature datasets.

Keywords

• extreme value theory
• generalized extreme value distribution
• return levels
• spatial analysis
• grapevine
• cold hardiness