Guan'gai paishui xuebao (Jan 2024)
Research on land use change in Huaihe River basin based on the CA-Markov model
Abstract
【Objective】 Study the characteristics of land use change in Huaihe River basin and predict the land use change in Huaihe River basin in 2030, in order to achieve reasonable development and utilization of land resources in the basin. 【Method】 The land use transfer matrix and land use dynamic were used to analyze the land use change characteristics based on the land use data of Huaihe River basin from 1990 to 2020. The land use pattern of Huaihe River basin in 2010 and 2015 were simulated based on the cellular automata-Markov (CA-Markov) model, and the land use change trend of the basin in 2030 is predicted under the condition of meeting a certain degree of accuracy. 【Result】 ①Cultivated land and construction land area account for more than 80% of the land use area, which were the two most dominant land use types in Huaihe River basin; ②The decrease of cultivated land and the continuous expansion of construction land were the most obvious change characteristics of land use in Huaihe River basin in the past 30 years; ③The land use in 2010 and 2015 simulated by the CA-Markov model based on the Kappa coefficients of 2010 and 2015 simulated based on CA-Markov model are 0.937 and 0.944, respectively, with high simulation accuracy; ④The predicted land use changes in Huaihe River basin in 2030 showed that the reduction of arable land and the expansion of land for construction are still the main trends, but the magnitude of the changes in both of them is slowing down, and the changes in forest land and grassland are not significant, but the area of watershed continues to increase. 【Conclusion】 The substantial expansion of construction land and the continuous decrease of arable land in Huaihe River basin should be emphasized, and the land use change in 2030 simulated based on CA-Markov model can provide a reference for the future land use development of the basin.
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