Korean National Income Based on a Chain Index: 1953~2010

Abstract

Korea’s national income statistics have been compiled by the Bank of Korea since 1953. However, there is a break in the time series. The current time series (1970 onward) is based on the ‘1993 SNA (System of National Accounts)’ suggested by the UN, and the previous time series (1953~1970) was based on the ‘1953 SNA’. The difference between the previous and current time series is 4.8% in 1970 when the two series overlap. The difference is even greater in terms of comparisons across industries. In addition, it has now become even more difficult to connect the current and the previous time series because, in 2009, the Bank of Korea introduced a chain weighted method for calculating the current time series (1970 onward). Under the chain weighted method, the time series underwent substantial modification; for instance, the economic growth rate during 1970~2005 is 0.9%p higher than the rate under the general method. This paper applies chain weighted values and the ‘1993 SNA’ to the previous time series (1953~1970) by utilizing various national account manuals published by the UN and previous Korean input-output tables in order to calculate a long term time series from 1953 to 2010 based on the same criteria as the current time series (1970 onward). In the revised time series, it appears that 1953 GDP at current basic prices is 3.5% higher and the growth rate for the period of 1953~1970 is 1.5%p higher each year than under the previous time series. Under the revised time series the size of the Korean economy as of 2010 is 50-fold bigger than that of 1953. In terms of industries, manufacturing and SOC show significant expansion whereas the extent of that of the service industry is relatively small.

Keywords

• GDP(GDP 통계)
• Longterm Time Series(장기 시계열)
• SNA(국민계정체계)
• Chain Weighted Method(연쇄가중법)