Extreme wind waves in the Black Sea

Abstract

Summary: Results of the analysis of a long-term data set, including fields of significant wave heights of the surface wave components, and mixed (total) wave field in the Black Sea are presented. The data set was collected on the basis of retrospective calculations using the MIKE 21 SW spectral wave model with the atmospheric forcing based on the ERA-Interim data in the period from 1979 to 2017. A criterion is used to isolate the swell waves from the initial wave data set that takes into account the wave age. We used the experimental data to develop a regression relationship showing that the maximum possible wave height can exceed the significant wave height approximately one and a half times. Analysis of the spatial distribution of wave heights in the Black Sea suggests that a possibility exists that significant wave height of storm waves can be as high as ∼12 m. This result indicates that the actual heights of maximum waves in the Black Sea can reach 18–19 m. Three regions are distinguished on the basis of the wave potential. The times of manifestation of extreme situations in these regions are different: in the southwestern part of the sea, extreme storm situations occur, as a rule, in December–January; in the region south of the Crimea Peninsula this happens in February; in the northeastern part of the sea they occur in November. It was also found that the south-southeastern and eastern parts of the sea are most affected by swell. Keywords: Wind waves, Swell, Wave climate, Black Sea, Numerical modeling, Return period