Reforestation Opportunities in Indonesia: Mitigating Climate Change and Achieving Sustainable Development Goals

Abstract

Reforestation in the tropics is highlighted as an important intervention to mitigate climate change globally because of its potential for high CO2 removal rates, ranging from 4.5 to 40.7 t CO2e ha−1 yr−1 during the first 20 years of tree growth. Reforestation is critical to meeting emissions’ targets of the Paris Climate Agreement, as well as achieving Indonesia’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) targets. Increasing carbon stocks through forest and land rehabilitation activities (RHL) is one of the Ministry of Environment and Forestry (MoEF) five main strategies for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the land sector. This study focuses on reforestation opportunities to support Indonesia’s NDC in reducing GHG emissions by 2030. We identified unproductive areas of land (shrub, open land) with highly degraded conditions as potential areas for reforestation. Based on Indonesian data of land cover change, we found that reforestation activities during 2019–2030 (11 years) under a realistic, ambitious and very ambitious scenario may remove carbon up to −0.25 GtCO2e (equal to −23 MtCO2e yr−1), −1.3 GtCO2e (equal to −124 MtCO2e yr−1) and −2.7 GtCO2e (equal to −247 MtCO2e yr−1), respectively. Based on international data of land cover change (Hansen et al. 2013), reforestation activities during 2019–2030, under a realistic, ambitious, and very ambitious scenario, have the opportunities to remove −17 MtCO2e yr−1, −118 MtCO2e yr−1, and −241 MtCO2e yr−1, respectively. This study demonstrates that ambitious and very ambitious scenarios of reforestation activities can significantly contribute to Indonesia’s forestry-related NDC in 2030 by reducing the Indonesia Business As Usual (BAU) emissions up to 17% and 35%.

Keywords

• carbon stock
• forest gain
• rehabilitation
• Nationally Determined Contribution
• mitigation action