Does Exchange Rate Volatility Affect Korea's Seaborne Import Volume?

Abstract

This study used monthly data from 2000 to 2015 to analyze the effects of USD/KRW exchange rate volatility on seaborne import volume in Korea. The results of an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) analysis indicate that USD/KRW exchange rate volatility has a statistically significant negative influence on Korea's seaborne import volume. Moreover, the results of a vector error correction model (VECM) analysis found that the USD/KRW exchange rate volatility exhibited short-term unidirectional causality on import volume and real income, and confirmed bidirectional causality between the real effective exchange rate and exchange rate volatility.

Keywords

• Seaborne Import Volume
• Volatility of USD/KRW Exchange Rate
• ARDL
• VECM