Forecast and Policy Suggestion of Consumption of Aquatic Products in China

Abstract

In order to adapt to the changes in the consumption structure of aquatic products in our country, the future consumption trend of aquatic products is studied and judged, in order to play an academic supporting role for the overall planning and scientific layout of aquatic products consumption market in China. In this paper, 9 typical indicators of population structure, import and export level, development level and consumption level are selected for principal component analysis, and BP neural network model is constructed to predict the consumption trend of aquatic products in China from 2023 to 2035. The results show that in the “14th Five-Year Plan”, “15th Five-Year Plan” and an even longer period of time, the apparent consumption of aquatic products in China has a large room for improvement, which is expected to increase to 90 444 000 tons in 2035. In order to ensure the effective supply of aquatic products and meet the needs of aquatic product consumption upgrading, suggestions were put forward to further explore aquatic product resources, improve aquatic product consumption promotion policies, strengthen the construction of cold chain logistics infrastructure and the development of government-led industries, so as to further meet the needs of residents for a better life.

Keywords

• consumption of aquatic products
• forecast
• influencing factors
• bp neural network model