Forecasting the spread associated with climate change in Eastern Europe of the invasive Asiatic flea beetle, Luperomorpha xanthodera (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae)

Abstract

The current climate has facilitated biological invasions worldwide, with the spread of invasive species accelerating over the last few decades. Introductions of species are often accidental and facilitated by many factors, including intercontinental trade. In this paper, we explore the secondary range of an adventive flea beetle native to Asia, Luperomorpha xanthodera, which was recently found in many European countries on several occurrences. This species has detrimental effects mainly on ornamental plants, being destructive to leaves and flowers, which can have serious negative economic consequences. We inferred current and future potential distribution of this alien species using Ecological Niche Modelling (ENM) and analysed the future increase in suitable areas in European countries. Suitable climatic conditions for L. xanthodera are assumed to be similar to that in areas where this species currently occurs, which includes Ireland and some Balkan countries, where the species is not recorded yet. In the future, a North-eastern expansion is predicted, with many countries currently lacking suitable climatic conditions for L. xanthodera becoming suitable and potentially colonizable by this species. The geographic trend revealed and quantified in our analysis follows the increase in the mean temperature in the coldest quarter of the year, which is predicted to rise in the next 30 years. This will result in this species spreading from south-western Europe to North-Eastern countries, such as Poland, Ukraine, Romania, Belarus and Latvia, which should adopt preventive measures to avoid the accidental introduction of L. xanthodera.

Keywords

• chrysomelidae
• galerucinae
• alticini
• luperomorpha xanthodera
• global warming
• biological invasions
• ecological niche modelling
• europe