The Identification of Key Factors and drivers Affecting Potential Soft War scenarios against the Armed Forces of Iran

Abstract

In the present era, the framework of the discourse of war has undergone major changes; this has led the strategies of the enemies, especially the United States, to shift towards intelligent approaches in the context of soft war and the armed forces of Iran have been one of their special targets in order to offend Iran's regime. This paper aimed to identify potential Soft War scenarios against the armed forces of Iran, as well as to explain the key factors and drivers behind it through the use of scenario planning and conducting interviews with 10 political-security elites in an expert panel. At the end, four probable scenarios of “schism and conflict," "sanctions and apostasy," "deception and projection," "transformation and influence," and 12 key factors and five major effective proponents were identified; solidarity between armed forces and various levels of society, solidarity and trust between commanders and government officials, religious identity and revolutionary beliefs, solidarity and trust among the personnel of the armed forces, especially the solidarity among its various components, and the religious, cultural, behavioral and social transformation are the most important factors influencing the scenarios. The most important drivers influencing key factors were economic, managerial, social, cultural, political, and ultimately science and technology, respectively.

Keywords

• soft war
• scenario planning
• drivers
• key factors
• armed forces
• iran