Early identification of threats as the means of fighting against hybrid warfare (with a focus on the south Caucasus)

Abstract

Early identification of the most recent hybrid threats (incident at Keshikchidag, the escalation in the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan, in July 2020, etc.) in the South Caucasus, enabled the nations to sidestep the repercussions of the provocation, most probably initiated by the external actors. This is the primary reason why the authors developed this paper. The importance of early identification in fighting against hybrid threats has been highlighted in the paper. The authors elaborated on the examples occured in the South Caucasus countries, as well as beyond the region. The challenges of identifying hybrid threats ahve been specified. The scenarios have been presented regarding the hybrid aggressors and hybrid threats in the South Caucasus region.

Keywords

• hybrid warfare,
• hybrid threat,
• south caucasus,
• gray zone,
• early identification.