ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF INDICATORS OF DEVELOPMENT OF FINANCIAL AND REAL ECONOMIC SECTORS

Abstract

The instability of the domestic economy and the influence of external factors lead to the deviation of the basic macroeconomic indicators from the normative equilibrium values. This requires the development of a qualitatively new integrated approach to the analysis of the main macroeconomic indicators of the development of the economy sectors in order to identify the effective institutional and financial foundations for stimulating economic progress of our state. The purpose of the work is to study the theoretical positions of the financial and real sectors of the economy and conduct an econometric analysis of the indicators of their development. Results. Theoretical positions about the place of the real and financial sectors of the economy in the general economic system of the state has been systematized in the article. The main indicators (KPIs — key performance indicators) of the studied sectors of the economy has been revealed. The econometric analysis of the main indicators of the development of the economy sectors has been based on real (actual) values corrected for inflation and has been presented in the classical theoretical Hix-Hansen equilibrium model on commodity and money markets (IS-LM). The data of the National Bank of Ukraine on the dynamics of the monetary base (B) and monetary aggregates (M0 — M3), and the State Statistics Service of Ukraine on GDP (Y) and inflation (СРІ) has been used in the research. The econometric analysis has showed a significant correlation between the nominal and real GDP, money supply and money base indicators, which are almost synchronized during 2001—2017. The presence of strong interdependence between the real values of these indicators has been confirmed by very high correlation values, which are ranged from 0.94 to 0.99. Almost functional dependence of the money supply on the monetary base has been explained by the availability of the existing mechanism of monetary multiplication, and the money market multiplier tends to increase. The high statistical dependence between the real NBU discount rate and the weighted average rate on all instruments has been revealed. It proved the effectiveness of the main instrument for implementing the discrete monetary policy of macroeconomic regulation. The negative significance of the correlation coefficients between the interest rates and the quantitative indicators of the real and financial sectors of the economy has shown that the traditional theoretical compromise in choosing the main problems to be solved in the economy to ensure macroeconomic stability is also typical for Ukraine. The application of the «expensive money» policy to combat high inflation negatively affects the real money supply, but taking into account the very high dependence between it and GDP, slows down the growth of the real sector of the economy, and vice versa. The obtained two-factor regression equation with very high reliability has explained by the retrospective changes in the real money supply. The most important factor for it is real GDP. This confirms the strong interconnection between the real and financial sectors of the economy in the process of developing the economic system. Quantitative indicators of development of both sectors are under the influence of long-term trends. They have their own nature and often depend on trends in the development of the world economy and finance as well as internal problems that are often predictable. Conclusions. The results has been obtained suggest that the synchronous long-term dynamics of real GDP, money supply and money base, as well as the statistical interdependence between them, firstly, signal that in Ukraine the rules of a market economy have already been formed and can be applied effectively in such conditions of the methods and tools of macroeconomic regulation, and secondly, processes occurring in one of the specified sectors of the economy will necessarily reflect on another. Therefore, solving macroeconomic problems requires a balanced and integrated approach taking into account the nature and strength of the interdependence between different processes and phenomena.

Keywords

• econometric analysis
• financial and real sector of the economy
• Gross Domestic Product
• money supply
• money base
• national economic model of Ukraine