Nature Communications (Aug 2021)
A pre-registered short-term forecasting study of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during the second wave
- J. Bracher,
- D. Wolffram,
- J. Deuschel,
- K. Görgen,
- J. L. Ketterer,
- A. Ullrich,
- S. Abbott,
- M. V. Barbarossa,
- D. Bertsimas,
- S. Bhatia,
- M. Bodych,
- N. I. Bosse,
- J. P. Burgard,
- L. Castro,
- G. Fairchild,
- J. Fuhrmann,
- S. Funk,
- K. Gogolewski,
- Q. Gu,
- S. Heyder,
- T. Hotz,
- Y. Kheifetz,
- H. Kirsten,
- T. Krueger,
- E. Krymova,
- M. L. Li,
- J. H. Meinke,
- I. J. Michaud,
- K. Niedzielewski,
- T. Ożański,
- F. Rakowski,
- M. Scholz,
- S. Soni,
- A. Srivastava,
- J. Zieliński,
- D. Zou,
- T. Gneiting,
- M. Schienle,
- List of Contributors by Team
Affiliations
- J. Bracher
- Chair of Statistics and Econometrics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)
- D. Wolffram
- Chair of Statistics and Econometrics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)
- J. Deuschel
- Chair of Statistics and Econometrics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)
- K. Görgen
- Chair of Statistics and Econometrics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)
- J. L. Ketterer
- Chair of Statistics and Econometrics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)
- A. Ullrich
- Robert Koch Institute (RKI)
- S. Abbott
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
- M. V. Barbarossa
- Frankfurt Institute for Advanced Studies
- D. Bertsimas
- Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
- S. Bhatia
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), Imperial College London
- M. Bodych
- Wroclaw University of Science and Technology
- N. I. Bosse
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
- J. P. Burgard
- Economic and Social Statistics Department, University of Trier
- L. Castro
- Information Systems and Modeling, Los Alamos National Laboratory
- G. Fairchild
- Information Systems and Modeling, Los Alamos National Laboratory
- J. Fuhrmann
- Frankfurt Institute for Advanced Studies
- S. Funk
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
- K. Gogolewski
- Institute of Informatics, University of Warsaw
- Q. Gu
- Department of Computer Science, University of California
- S. Heyder
- Institute of Mathematics, Technische Universität Ilmenau
- T. Hotz
- Institute of Mathematics, Technische Universität Ilmenau
- Y. Kheifetz
- Institute for Medical Informatics, Statistics and Epidemiology, University of Leipzig
- H. Kirsten
- Institute for Medical Informatics, Statistics and Epidemiology, University of Leipzig
- T. Krueger
- Wroclaw University of Science and Technology
- E. Krymova
- Swiss Data Science Center, ETH Zurich and EPFL
- M. L. Li
- Operations Research Center, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
- J. H. Meinke
- Jülich Supercomputing Centre, Forschungszentrum Jülich
- I. J. Michaud
- Statistical Sciences Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory
- K. Niedzielewski
- Interdisciplinary Centre for Mathematical and Computational Modeling, University of Warsaw
- T. Ożański
- Wroclaw University of Science and Technology
- F. Rakowski
- Interdisciplinary Centre for Mathematical and Computational Modeling, University of Warsaw
- M. Scholz
- Institute for Medical Informatics, Statistics and Epidemiology, University of Leipzig
- S. Soni
- Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
- A. Srivastava
- Ming Hsieh Department of Computer and Electrical Engineering, University of Southern California
- J. Zieliński
- Interdisciplinary Centre for Mathematical and Computational Modeling, University of Warsaw
- D. Zou
- Department of Computer Science, University of California
- T. Gneiting
- Computational Statistics Group, Heidelberg Institute for Theoretical Studies (HITS)
- M. Schienle
- Chair of Statistics and Econometrics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)
- List of Contributors by Team
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-25207-0
- Journal volume & issue
-
Vol. 12,
no. 1
pp. 1 – 16
Abstract
Forecasting models have been used extensively to inform decision making during the COVID-19 pandemic. In this preregistered and prospective study, the authors evaluated 14 short-term models for Germany and Poland, finding considerable heterogeneity in predictions and highlighting the benefits of combined forecasts.
