Long-term dynamics of European towns and cities: towards a spatial model of urban growth

Abstract

The aim of the study is to elaborate a model in the framework of self-organisation theory which would describe how interactions between individual towns and cities can produce macro-geographical structures and dynamics at the scale of a continental urban system. Simulations have been made using a statistical model of urban growth in a system of cities (the Gibrat’s model). Results, however, show systematic discrepancies with observations. Coming back to empirical features of urban dynamics on a very long term and for a very large set of towns and cities (Europe, 1600-2000) brings new hypothesis which will be introduced in further formulations of the model.

Keywords

• urban growth
• spatial convergence
• urban system
• self-organization/self-organisation