On the importance of systems thinking in ERW (explosive remnants of war) risk management

Abstract

One of the legacies of armed conflict is unexploded ordnance and abandoned ammunition. This legacy will, in many cases, have a severe impact on society and daily life, even for years or decades after hostilities have ended. The millions of tonnes of explosive remnants that remain in nature represent a grave threat in many ways, and, if left in place, the human, societal and environmental impact could prove to be severe. Clearing the ERW represents a serious and complex risk in itself, a risk that could increase if mismanaged. Furthermore, the accumulations of munition contamination hinder and severely endanger areal development, both on land and offshore. However, vast amounts of explosives and accumulations of munitions, such as those in dumping areas and shipwrecks, are systematically neglected. An unintentional detonation at such a site could prove to have disastrous societal and environmental consequences. In the present work, it is shown that systems thinking could be used as a tool to gain better insight into the complexity of managing the risk related to explosive remnants of war, and to better prioritize resources allocated to mitigating this threat, resulting in the optimization of resource allocation and reduced societal risk.

Keywords

• Unexploded ordnance
• Risk mitigation
• Risk prevention
• Complex risk management
• Cascading risks