Dynamic Modeling of a New Product Supply Chain using System Dynamics Approach

Abstract

Supply chains are network of organizations and individuals involved in fulfilling customer needs. Increasing research and interests of researchers and industrial managers in the supply chain, make it necessary to investigate the behavior of the supply chain network. At this research, researchers tried to analyze the impact of variables of demand uncertainties, as well as uncertainties related to supply chain partners' performance on the supply chain performance in a two-echelon supply chain of medical equipments. Customer demand fill rate (CDFR), and the bullwhip effect (BE) were analyzed as two indicators of supply chain performance. In order to analysis of system behavior regarding uncertainties, system dynamics (SD) is employed, which is a powerful tool to analyze and understand the behavior of the supply chain operations. The results showed that increase in demand, the uncertainty of demand, uncertainty of production systems, and uncertainties related to the ability to supply, has a significant effect on intensifying the effect of BE, and reducing CDFR across the supply chain.

Keywords

• supply chain management
• system dynamics
• bullwhip effect
• new product development