Variability of marine heatwaves’ characteristics and assessment of their potential drivers in the Baltic Sea over the last 42 years

Abstract

Abstract This study examined Baltic Sea Marine Heatwaves (MHWs) using 42 years of satellite-derived sea surface temperature (SST) data. We found that MHWs in warmer months are more intense but shorter compared to MHWs in cooler months. Also, MHWs predominantly affect offshore areas in warmer months, whereas MHWs predominantly impacting coastal seas in cooler months, especially along the eastern coast. Our analysis of interannual variability revealed that, unlike in many other basins worldwide, Baltic MHWs tend to maintain a constant intensity, while their spatial extent has significantly increased over the last few decades. Shortwave radiation notably influences MHW intensity and spatial extent, with additional impacts from longwave radiation in cooler months and latent heat flux in warmer months. Northern Hemisphere teleconnections exhibit stronger correlations with MHWs in the Baltic Sea compared to global-scale climate oscillations, with the Eastern Atlantic pattern having a particularly significant effect on MHW variability in the region.

Keywords

• MHW
• Baltic Sea
• Climate oscillations
• Heat flux