The results of computer simulation of the probability of accidents due to ship compressions by drifting ice along the Northern Sea Route (Eng)

Abstract

Results of testing of computer simulation model for assessment of probability of accidents with tankers due to pressure by drifting ice are presented. The testing was carried out for the navigation route «Sabetta Port – Kara Gate Strait – Murmansk Port» and for the first ten-days period of May, during the most difficult ice conditions of the navigation. The probabilities of the accidents were calculated. There was analyzed the model response to variations of its parameters values.

Keywords

• simulation
• accident probability
• nips