Demographics of co-ageing complex systems: from infected worms to chess games

Abstract

Ageing, as defined in terms of the slope of the probability of death versus time (hazard curve), is a generic phenomenon observed in nearly all complex systems. Theoretical models of ageing predict hazard curves that monotonically increase in time, in discrepancy with the peculiar ups and downs observed empirically. Here we introduce the concept of co-ageing, where the demographic trajectories of multiple cohorts couple together, and show that co-ageing dynamics can account for the anomalous hazard curves exhibited by some species. In our model, multiple interdependency networks inflict damage on one other proportional to their number of functional nodes. We then fit our model predictions to three datasets describing (i) co-ageing worm–pathogen populations and (ii) competing tree species. Lastly, we collect data on the mortality statistics of (iii) chess games to demonstrate that co-ageing dynamics is not exclusive to biological systems.

Keywords

• complex systems
• ageing
• demographics
• ecology
• co-ageing
• Networks