Domino Effects Due to the Projection of Fragments: Estimation of the Impact Probability Using a Monte Carlo Simulation

Abstract

Although the remarkable severity of accidental scenarios arising from the propagation of moderate primary accidents, a complete methodology has not been developed for the prediction and prevention of such events, in particular for domino effects trigged by the projection of fragments. This contribution, illustrates the application of a well known methodology for the estimation of potential impacts of tank explosions producing fragments given by CCPS (Centre for Chemical Process Safety). In order to incorporate the procedure into the standard QRA (Quantitative Risk Analysis), a probabilistic model for the impact probability of the fragments is developed by applying a Monte-Carlo method on the analytical solution of the set of equations describing the motion of the fragment.